I hope you had a great Good Friday, and the long weekend is going well. I had a good Friday because the markets were closed on both sides of the pond, so it didn’t really matter what was being said 3460 miles away, and no I don’t mean the Artemis space mission.
Something got me pondering this week, with US ‘gas’ prices reaching $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-2022, in one of the most visible measures of consumer pain resulting from the Middle East conflict, is it possible that President Trump might warm to the ways of Europeans? I mean by adopting the way we price per litre!
We’ve become so used to ‘ppl’ that it seems to have slipped by that Petrol is now £7 per gallon and diesel over £8.50 [Ed – stop before you mention the £1 gallon and really show your age!] reflecting that in March petrol and diesel prices jumped more than in any previous single month, the RAC has said
The spike came according to Bloomberg as Donald Trump finally tried to sell the American public on his Iran war, but his primetime addresses, five weeks into the messy conflict, showed he’s grasping for an off-ramp. The president offered no clear timeline for ending the hostilities, while pledging (and already delivering!) more aggressive action over the next two to three weeks. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel continued to trade strikes and Trump renewed threats against Iranian electric plants.
Oil surged as Trump’s speech damped hopes for a swift resolution and instead pointed to prolonged disruptions to energy flows. European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel. Stocks and bonds slid. The month-long turmoil has forced traders to unwind positions, and some of the world’s largest hedge funds got walloped in March. But it’s thrown up a predictable pattern for the stock market, which now tends to start the week on a strong note before drifting sideways mid-week and collapsing—like clockwork—every Thursday.
The dollar is on track for its best month since 2024, with the conflict pushing investors to the world’s primary reserve currency. But the outlook for once high-flying chip stocks remains gloomy. In the words of Citi: “we’re looking at a world of sustained higher yields and sustained higher energy costs and that doesn’t help the AI sector.”
Market News
As it seems my mob go to the only school in the country not off until today, the number of market commentaries this week has been less than usual [Ed – who can blame anyone for disappearing at the moment?] but we have the usual contributors this week to give us the nitty-gritty of what has been happening, starting off with the team at Tatton Investment Management with the latest Tatton Weekly covering the following:
- A seasonal central bank pivot – All investment questions now start with ‘when?’ as markets deal with the consequences of the ongoing Iran war, but this week it was once again central bankers, not politicians, that provided market underpinning.
- March asset returns review – The month started with a war and an immediate market fall and, despite global growth in reasonable shape and optimism about a peace deal, an end to the tough times in markets is not yet clearly in sight .
- Markets personified (insight article) – Why do we talk about investment markets like they have a personality? We explain how this collective ‘thought’ process originates and why it is useful to investors.
Janet Mui, Head of Market Analysis at RBC Brewin Dolphin, discusses how the Iran conflict is reshaping markets, from surging energy prices to constrained central bank policy in the latest Markets In A Minute video.
Key highlights
- Mixed signals over the Iran war: Contradictory statements coming from the U.S. and Iran, along with the capricious nature of President Trump, continue to make it challenging to predict outcomes in the Middle East.
- The economic impact is yet to be fully felt: Anticipated inflationary pressures and predictions of interest rate rises are set against a backdrop of general uncertainty and reduced opportunity for fiscal stimulus, leaving investors in something of a holding pattern until more clarity emerges.
- Input prices start to rise: Some indicators, most notably the purchasing managers indices, show that businesses are beginning to feel the pinch as the cost of inputs has started to rise, with a potential knock-on effect on outputs to follow.
And the following from Quartet Investment Management:
Markets are being driven by the hope that Middle East tensions may de-escalate, even as volatility remains elevated. Equities have been recovering on easing war fears, while oil has swung sharply and gold has remained well-supported as a hedge against renewed escalation. Bonds have also responded to the growth-and-inflation mix, with US Treasury yields easing as investors priced in more policy support and look ed through some of the inflation shock from higher energy costs. In currency markets, the dollar has softened as Trump signalled a possible off-ramp, which helped risk assets. The IEA warned the energy shock could still worsen before it improves, if we assume that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until mid-April. Moreover, the risks remain heavily skewed toward worse outcomes that feature much higher prices, both for the peak and the longer term. In a severely adverse scenario, damage to energy infrastructure reduces global production capacity for years to come.
If you need a coffee at this point and don’t mind listening to a financial podcast whilst you do Jane Parry, Chief Marketing Officer at Canaccord Wealth is joined by Tom Hibbert, Chief Investment Strategist, to discuss:
- Why markets are currently pricing two very different economic outcomes
- What resilience in equities and credit markets is really telling us
- Why gilts are reacting so differently
- Whether rising yields reflect genuine risk, or a potential opportunity for investors.
While uncertainty remains high, understanding how different parts of the market are responding can help cut through the noise. As always, maintaining perspective, staying diversified, and focusing on long-term objectives remains key.
I also have pleasure in attached the Rathbones’ quarterly market commentary from John Wyn-Evans, Head of Market Analysis. Well it is a bumper ‘Holiday Edition’ and I don’t have any plastic toys to give away or balsa-wood aeroplanes, so its extra copy instead!
With Charts Like These
In a very interesting webinar this week from Karen Ward and Hugh Gimber at JP Morgan, it was pointed out that Iran exports 80% of its oil to countries that would be considered friendly. The hope therefore is that those countries will add pressure to allow enough oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to bring the price down for its mates!
Charts that Hopefully Help Add Perspective
Capital Group has prepared a few charts to show that whilst things seem bleak now is not the investment time to panic. I’m going to keep the rest for future editions of the bulletin, because I’m afraid that we might be discussing the conflict for a while longer.
When in doubt, zoom out
Think back to early 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine delivered a geopolitical shock that rattled markets and dominated headlines, much like today. Brent crude climbed nearly 30% to a high of $128 per barrel. At the same time, central banks led by the US Federal Reserve moved aggressively to raise interest rates, compounding uncertainty for investors already on edge.
How did stocks react? Fears that war and the fastest Fed rate hikes in decades would tip the global economy into a recession sent the S&P 500 Index down 19% in 2022. But the index staged a powerful rebound in 2023, gaining nearly 24% as inflation cooled, energy markets stabilised, and earnings proved more resilient than many investors expected. The episode serves as a reminder that markets often absorb shocks faster than headlines suggest.
Whether the market choppiness of early 2026 might give way to smoother sailing is impossible to know. But the upcoming midterm elections could steer the Trump administration to focus on more bread-and-butter issues that add economic optimism.
Market selloffs tied to oil supply shocks have been short-lived
Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor’s. Specific geopolitical events that are reflected in average returns figures include: First Gulf War (August 1990), Second Gulf War (March 2003), Niger Delta supply disruptions (February 2006), Arab Spring and Libyan civil war (February 2011), Hormuz closure risk and Iran sanctions (December 2011), drone attack on Saudi oil stations (September 2019), Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 2022). Event dates are aligned to the nearest observable market price (“T”). If a shock occurs on a nontrading day, the prior trading day is used as the start date. Horizon returns are measured using the first available trading day on or after the stated calendar horizon (e.g., “T+2 days”). Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. Figures reflect total returns. As of 10 March 2026
Life Insurance for Inheritance Tax
Last week I gave a detailed breakdown of how a whole of life policy could be used to provide a benefit on death to pay off inheritance tax liability.
As an alternative, if you have plans to gift away your inheritance tax liability then how about a convertible term assurance policy. This allows the policy to be converted into a whole of life policy at any time before a specified time. For example, our 63-year-old male could get £1m of cover up to age 80 for £790 pm. He intends to gift away as much as he can but perhaps that isn’t possible [ED – like he invests through JB Wealth, and the funds do really well?] If he dies before that age the policy pays out but if he can convert the policy to a whole of life if he needs to either to give him longer to gift, as he can then cancel the policy once he has, or to just cover the IHT liability on his death.
Life Insurance for Spouses/Partners
It’s easy to see why we establish insurance on the life of the main family breadwinners. The financial impact if they were to die early is easy to see as the income stream ceases. But we were reminder this week of the need to look beyond the obvious when looking at protecting family wealth.
As well as the terrible psychological impact of the unexpected death of a spouse or partner the financial impact can be immense too. Whether that is extra childcare, moving costs, or myriad additional costs that might be needed. Continuing to maintain family living standard with the additional pressures is difficult.
Clearly nothing will replace the loss but consider life insurance on the non-breadwinner, or the partner who earns less should be a high priority for every family. If you want to find out more, please speak to your usual JB Wealth advisor.
Company Valuations
Bertrand Seguin reports that 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗔𝗜 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.
The company has closed a massive $𝟭𝟮𝟮 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 funding round, catapulting its valuation to $𝟴𝟱𝟮 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. To put that in perspective, Sam Altman’s firm is now worth more than JPMorgan Chase and sits among the 15 most valuable companies on the planet.
The biggest checks came from those who benefit most from OpenAI’s spending. Amazon committed $50 billion (tied to an $80B AWS contract), and NVIDIA put in $30 billion.
The bottom line is that OpenAI has the market cap of a titan and the CapEx plan of a nation-state. The $852 billion question is whether OpenAI can start generating real cash before investors start challenging the multiple.
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Important Note
Well, it’s important to us. We are proud to announce a revamp to the JB Wealth website. We think its fresher and easier to navigate and hope you agree. So please let us have any feedback about it and we will take all comments on board.
You can view it here: https://www.jbwm.co.uk/
And it contains copies of all your favourite bulletins, although I realise that might be pushing thigs a little. Past copies are posted on it!
Finally, congratulations to the Oxford women’s and the Cambridge men’s boat race crews for their wins today. I’m off for a hot soak with Epsom salts and I’ve only been watching! I hope to catch up with you next time.