It might be me, but the whole week seems to have been a bit wonky this week. Record breaking temperatures, the sun disappearing in the middle of the day, I’ve got Summer Flu [Ed – it’s a cold!], and the S&P 500 reached an all-time intraday high of 7,816.70 and a record closing high of 7,798.99 on Thursday, driven by cooling inflation data and strong tech earnings. Even the Financial Times called it “Investors pile back into US stocks as bullishness returns to Wall Street. Stellar earnings season and falling inflation fuel rebound from July’s chip rout”
Whilst this side of the pond the FTSE 100 index is slightly down on the week, despite the economy expanding by 0.4%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said growth had “remained relatively robust”, with the UK ahead of other G7 countries for growth this year so far.
The figures were in line with market expectations but below a 0.6% increase in the first three months of this year. Summer sun and sports fixtures helped the UK economy grow between April and June, according to official data, but some economists warned the outlook for the rest of the year was weaker.
Market Commentators
This week’s Tatton Weekly News covers the following:
- Hot weather, chilled markets – In a week where global markets drifted higher and the UK fell behind, we look at the changes to market dynamics as we approach autumn.
- Do currency interventions work? – The impact of the US and Japanese intervention to support the yen has already diluted, we look at past currency interventions to assess if they can make markets change direction.
- Beware US margin expansion – At first glance the growth in US corporate earnings looks great, but without commensurate revenue growth how long can this carry on for?
In their latest Weekly Digest, Rathbones’ Chief Investment Officer Robert Sears looks at why investors are demanding more proof from the artificial intelligence boom, with profits now needing to justify the enthusiasm that has powered markets higher.
He argues that AI still dominates the earnings story, but markets are becoming more selective. Huge spending on semiconductors, data centres, cloud computing, and power infrastructure continues to support growth, yet investors are watching closely to see whether that investment can turn into durable returns.
This is not a story of fading confidence so much as rising accountability. As the AI cycle matures, borrowing, supplier-backed financing, and ambitious capital plans raise the stakes if demand disappoints. Encouragingly, market leadership is broadening, but the next test is whether AI can deliver lasting profits rather than higher expectations alone.
Presumably back from his holidays, Guy Foster, chief strategist at RBC Brewin Dolphin, discusses the AI stock rebound following a sharp decline in July, and the latest U.S. labour data.
Key highlights
- Gulf de-escalation: Oil fell from a high of $100 per barrel to below $80 per barrel amid reports of a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- AI equity volatility: July saw a rotation out of AI infrastructure stocks, driven by efficiency gains in open-weight models and a forced hedge fund unwind.
- U.S. labour market: Jobs data pointed to broad stability, but the July payrolls report showed a surprise decline of 23,000 jobs, keeping interest rate decisions finely balanced.
Money Talks
Whilst I try to encourage people not to sit on too much cash, but to get it invested and working harder, we are still a nation of savers. Reported by Forbes, total sterling cash deposits and savings held by UK households alone exceed £1.9 trillion (approaching £2.19 trillion when counting broader household deposit and savings categories), according to the Bank of England and recent market data.
We now have access to the Insignis Cash which allows individuals to manage surplus cash across a panel of over 50 regulated banks and building societies through a single application and login, helping users optimize interest rates and diversify risk.
It can help in the following areas:
- Diversify risk as you grow your cash savings
- Optimise FSCS coverage – Explore thousands of savings products from 50+ banks and building societies on our platform. Distribute your cash across multiple savings products and optimise your FSCS coverage: the FSCS will compensate up to £120,000 per eligible person per authorised institution should that institution fail.
- Access exclusive saving rates – et exclusive access to rates that you might not find on the high street. Insignis works directly with a wide range of top banks and building societies across the UK to bring a selection of competitive products.
- View all interest earned in one platform – see exactly how much interest you have received across all your deposit accounts.
- Simplify tax year end when it comes around.
If you are interested in finding out more, and for those with more than £50,000 cash you really should take a look.
Triple Lock or Double Whammy
Hundreds of thousands of people are missing out on an annual increase in their state pension due to quirks in the system, reports MoneyWeek.
The triple lock guarantees that state pensions are boosted each year by the highest of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%. The UK state pension rose by 4.8% in April under the triple lock mechanism. The full new state pension was hiked from £230.25 per week to £241.30 per week. This means the full new amount is now around £12,547 per year.
Meanwhile, the full ‘old’ basic state pension increased from £176.45 per week to £184.90 per week, taking the full annual amount to £9,614.
But many British pensioners are missing out on the yearly uplift due to where they live or the type of pension they have. Meanwhile, others are missing out on triple lock-linked rises on specific elements of their state pension due to the way the system operates.
1. Retirees living abroad in certain countries
British pensioners living abroad in certain countries such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand, don’t have their state pension increased under the triple lock. This ‘frozen state pension’ policy affects over 400,000 pensioners, according to End Frozen Pensions, with 49% of these people receiving £65 per week or less.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “If you are planning on retiring abroad then it’s really important to do your due diligence. “If you retire somewhere that is not in the European Economic Area or somewhere that doesn’t have a social security agreement with the UK that includes uprating then your state pension could be frozen. “The state pension forms the foundation of your retirement income and if it is frozen you could find your standard of living impacted over time.”
If you live in the following countries, you receive an annual increase to your state pension:
- Austria
- Belgium
- Bulgaria
- Croatia
- Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Finland
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hungary
- Iceland
- Ireland
- Italy
- Latvia
- Liechtenstein
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Malta
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Poland
- Portugal
- Romania
- Slovakia
- Slovenia
- Spain
- Sweden
- Barbados
- Bermuda
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Gibraltar
- Guernsey
- the Isle of Man
- Israel
- Jamaica
- Jersey
- Kosovo
- Mauritius
- Montenegro
- North Macedonia
- The Philippines
- Serbia
- Turkey
- USA
2. Pensioners with additional state pension
The triple lock pledge only applies to the old basic state pension and the new state pension. Under the basic state pension system, you were sometimes entitled to additional amounts known as the State Second Pension or SERPS, however these extra amounts are not triple lock protected.
Brits who paid into the old state pension system and have additional amounts receive ‘protected payments’ if their entitlement exceeds the full new state pension amount. These protected payments also don’t rise under the triple lock mechanism and typically increase in line with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation each year. Jon Greer, head of retirement at wealth manager Quilter, said: “People receiving additional state pension entitlements built up under previous pension arrangements may find those elements rise by a different measure, and are generally uprated in line with inflation rather than the triple lock.”
3. People who defer their state pension
The third group of people who don’t benefit from the triple lock on their whole state pension are those who defer their state pension. Your state pension increases by 1% for every nine weeks you delay taking it, equivalent to 5.8% over a year, if you reached or will reach state pension age on or after 6 April 2016. Deferring can be a good option for people who don’t need the income immediately, perhaps because they are still working or have other sources of cash. However, any deferred amount you accumulate does not rise via the triple lock mechanism. Greer said: “The additional amount earned through deferral is calculated under separate rules and may not benefit from the triple lock in the same way as the underlying state pension.”
If you have any queries, please speak to your usual JB Wealth advisor.
Hot Topics
Rather than the normal conversations; “Hot, isn’t it? You hot? Gosh it’s hot” 7IM says that the Met Office has got someexcellent stats to add colour to your conversations – we particularly like this map on rainfall which goes back to 1836*; pick your location as appropriate!
Source: metoffice.gov.uk
Anyway, back in May, we were talking about the potential for a boom in air conditioning in the UK, and what it might mean for the grid/infrastructure if the UK starts looking a bit more like the US (90% of homes have aircon!). To be honest, we were thinking about the next decade or so. We should probably bring that timeline forwards …
Source: Google Trends
Because this summer, the heat got real. Maybe you’re one of those people still sweating it out waiting for a delivery of an AC unit, ordered online weeks ago.
What’s taking so long?!!
Well, the answer leads us into the wonderful world of global supply chains – and recent data releases help paint the picture.
China has exported $3.8 billion worth of air conditioners to the EU in 2026, a 44% increase on last year. Midea, one of the world’s largest manufacturers, says sales to the UK, Germany, France and Spain all increased by more than 70% in the first half of 2026. And Chinese manufacturers are now running air-conditioner factories around the clock to keep up with demand.
Because making the things isn’t the problem; MOVING them is.
Back in 2013, China launched the Belt and Road Initiative, sometimes referred to as the “New Silk Road”, pouring more than one trillion dollars into 150 countries, building and upgrading the railways, roads and logistics networks. The idea is simple: if you’re going to manufacture the goods, it helps to control how they get delivered too.
The investment is paying off. The black lines on the map below show the China-Europe rail network as it looked in 2016.
The green lines show it today.
Source: China Railway/7IM
In 2016 there were 1,700 trains from China to Europe. Last year there were more than 20,000.
An air conditioner shipped from China to Europe typically spends 40 days on a boat. By rail, it can get here in 15 days.
But that fortnight still feels like eternity in a heatwave … so if 2027 is really going to be hotter than 2026, it might be worth ordering now.
Miscellaneous
Aviva’s chief executive Dame Amanda Blanc has personally asked Chancellor John Healey to stop floating potential policy changes before the October budget, reports MSN. She warned that pension savers could be harmed by weeks of speculation about possible tax raids on their retirement savings. Dame Amanda revealed she raised the issue directly with Mr Healey at a recent event. She told him the Government must avoid repeating last year’s mistakes, when rumours swirled about cuts to the 25 per cent tax-free pension lump sum. “We do not want to see new things every week in the press around what might happen in the run-up to the budget,” she said. “That is not very helpful, because what we do not want is for customers to make decisions that they will regret in the long run when policies are not changed.” Obviously if we hear anything more, we’ll tip you the wink.
James Jones-Tinsley at Barnett Waddingham (soon to be known as Howden) outlined at a seminar today that some 12 years after Georg Osborne said that nobody would ever need to take out an annuity again, resulting in annuity provision falling off a cliff, annuity rates are currently at an 18 year high!
Katie Hancock says that her initial investigation seems to indicate that stock and share ISAs of the recently deceased will not be exempt from the restrictions applying to the holding of cash. It’s only natural for Personal Representatives to want to de-risk holdings pending probate and the payment to beneficiaries, but doing so might well result in a tax charge.
Again, it could be me, but are the dead a real target in the raising of tax just lately? They can’t moan I suppose. Perhaps the real target is the inheritors as it’s not their money! Either way I think its going to be an area that comes under increasing pressure.
And finally, having got youngest son his swanky new uniform I’m busy sticking and sowing labels into everything. For ease, of ensuring he makes it home I’m tempted to have our address tattoo-ed on him somewhere, but apparently that is not part of the school’s dress code! I wonder if a large label will do! Hope to catch up with you next time.