I’m sure it could be the start of a joke if it wasn’t so serious, but when is a ceasefire not a ceasefire? Whilst I hope the weekend brings good news on that front, the on/off, what is included/excluded, who’s involved/isn’t nature of it, described by the BBC’s Frank Gardner as “This ceasefire is more full of holes than a piece of Swiss cheese. It is a ceasefire in name only.” Despite this, the price of oil has fallen over the week from about $113 per barrel to just above $95.
This has been reflected in investment markets with the FTSE100 index up over 3%, the S&P 500 up the same, and the Nasdaq over 4% higher over the same period.
The potential ceasefire news was boosted in the US by March inflation data coming in largely in alignment with expectations, but another Friday managed to deliver unpleasant news about the US economy reported by David E. Rovella at Bloomberg. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment fell in recent weeks to a record low, an historic reading likely fuelled by the US-Israel war with Iran and the effect it’s had on already-bubbling inflation. The preliminary April sentiment index plummeted to 47.6 from 53.3 in March. Americans expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year.
Adding fuel to the consumer gloom were new inflation numbers from the Trump administration Friday. Unsurprisingly, they showed Americans paying close to 40% more for gasoline since the war began as part of the biggest overall inflation jump in four years.
So how bad is it getting out there? One possible canary is that more Americans are going to their local pawn shops for loans. Still, even with all the dour news, bond traders are sticking to hopeful bets the Federal Reserve will find space to cut interest rates this year. While all around is foreboding, it seems that on Wall Street hope springs eternal.
Market News
It’s best that I actually whisper this but, we are now through Q1 of 2026, so with their review of an ‘interesting’ first three months I attach the RBC Brewin Dolphin round up. No prizes for guessing what it’s mainly about!
There is an update from Patrick Farrell, Group Chief Investment Officer at Charles Stanley.
Lothar Mentel’s team have prepared the usual Tatton Weekly for us which specifically picks up on the following topics this week:
- Brief relief – The announcement of a ceasefire in Iran created a wave of relief, fuelling a market bounce back and beneath the surface there are strong underlying earnings expectations, although bonds remain a bit of a worry.
- Pax Silica (AI’s NATO) – Designed to secure AI and semiconductor supply chains Pax Silica, created to protect the US from China, will be a very important tech trade lever going forward, even if it is too late.
- Trump’s budget throws caution to the wind – The first tariff ‘TACO’ was caused by the power of the bond market, his new deficit expanding budget plans carry the same risk.
I hope you find all these, or at least the ones you read, useful.
Interesting thought(s) of the Week
Two little (and separate!) thoughts this week from 7IM. The second one we have mentioned before but it becomes more obvious as you focus in. I’ll keep my fingers crossed that it becomes a historical curiosity, and the talks go well!
Tax Year End – Why the 6th April?!
Was your TYE much like your NYE? Fireworks, everyone counting down, Jools Holland on TV? Probably not …
But in the rest of the world, the end of the tax year DOES align with the end of the calendar year*. Why is the UK so weird? What’s so special about 6th April starting things off? Well …
In the Middle Ages, New Year fell on the 25th March. That marked the start of the planting season and sat exactly nine months before Christmas. Year-end and tax-year end lined up neatly.
Then, in 1752, the UK adopted the Gregorian calendar and New Year moved to the 1st January and (for complicated mathematical reasons) 11 days vanished altogether.
But having just finished an expensive foreign war, the government wasn’t keen on losing 11 days of tax revenue. So, the 25th March became the 6th April, to maximise the tax take.
The answer is a combination of accident, fudging, and government greed (that’s basically all of history, to be fair).
And now the familiar pattern again. Deadline passed, pressure off, no-one will be thinking about ISAs and SIPPs until oh, say, 11 and a half months from now … ?
TACO – Spot the pattern
What with the TYE at fever pitch, you might have missed the more short-term rhythm that’s developed since the US-Iran conflict kicked off. This chart shows the daily moves in the S&P 500 since the first bombs dropped. Can you see it?
Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
I’ll make it easier. Same chart, but grey bars are the weekends.
Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Easier still, the average return by day of the week over the past five weeks:
Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. End date 02/04/26
Some signs of progress/de-escalation on Monday, hope fades throughout the week, and then stress over the weekend. Repeat, repeat, repeat. You wouldn’t quite set your clock by it, but something worth watching over the next month or so.
*Most of the rest of the world. Australia and New Zealand have it at the end of June, their winter. No one wants to do taxes in the height of BBQ season.
ISA NOW
Analysis shows that early bird ISA investors who make use of their ISA allowance from the start of the tax year tend to do better than those who invest at the last minute.
Analysis from asset manager Vanguard, and noted in MoneyWeek, shows that a hypothetical investor who invested their entire £20,000 allowance on 6 April 2025, and did the same at the start of each subsequent tax year, would see their pot grow to £1,079,320 by the end of the 25th year (assuming a 5.5% annual return after fees).
Waiting until the end of each tax year to invest the £20,000, though, would leave the same investor with £1,023,052 – around £56,000 less, just by virtue of waiting until the end of the tax year. “Time in the market really matters,” said James Norton, head of retirement & investments at Vanguard. “We see that many people rush to max out their ISA allowance at the end of a tax year, rather than at the beginning, missing out on almost a year of tax-efficient returns. “The key is to make your money work for you as early as you can, in a way that fits your circumstances,” Norton added.
Over the entire history of ISAs, since their introduction in 1999, early bird ISA investors could be £83,000 better off than last-minute investors, according to analysis from investment platform InvestEngine. Putting the £20,000 annual ISA allowance into the MSCI ACWI Net Total Return (GBP) index at the start of every financial year since April 1999 would have built a pot worth £1,277,963, compared to the £1,195,127 that the same contributions would have grown to if made at the end of each year.
“With the new lower cash ISA limit set to come in next year, those considering a stocks and shares ISA for the first time could benefit by starting early with their investments. Even small amounts can make a big difference over time.”
Staying the Course
In the second of the Capital Group’s reminder why panicking when investment markets have wobbles is not a good idea reminds us that bear markets have been relatively short-lived.
A long-term focus can help investors put bear markets in perspective. Since 1949 there have been 11 periods of 20%-or-greater declines in the S&P 500. Although the average 33% decline during these cycles is painful to endure, missing out on the average bull market’s 265% return could be far worse.
Bear markets are typically shorter than bull markets, lasting an average of 12 months. While that can feel like an eternity, it pales in comparison to the average bull market, which lasts for 67 months — another reason that trying to time investment decisions is ill-advised.
Bull markets are much longer and stronger than bears
Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. The bull market that began in 2022 is considered current as of 28 February 2026 and not included in the average bull market calculations. Bear markets are peak-to-trough price declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500. Bull markets are all other periods. Returns shown on a logarithmic scale.
Forecasting the start of the next recession is difficult. Many investors, for example, braced for a recession when the Federal Reserve raised rates in 2022 to combat sky-high inflation. Instead, the US economy grew, with markets posting double-digit gains in 2023, 2024, and 2025.
In the current environment, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of recession because of its significance as a vital passageway for one-fifth of the world’s oil. Higher energy costs could weigh on businesses and consumers, reducing the earnings potential for many companies. But the economy has surprised to the upside before, and it is too early to tell if widespread job losses, the hallmark of a recession, will occur.
Important News
[Ed – what twice in two weeks, you might be accused of being informative if you are not careful!]
The official state pension age is rising from 66 reports MoneyWeek.
From 6th April 2026, those born between 6 April 1960 and 5 March 1961 will receive their state pension somewhere between age 66 and 67, as part of a phased process which is ending in 2028.
The government is raising the threshold at which you can receive the benefit as life expectancy increases and its cost grows. Despite the major changes coming to the state pension age, research suggests a lack of knowledge about it. In a recent poll of 2,000 people, carried out by AJ Bell, only 19% correctly identified the state pension age as 66.
A quick and simple way to check your retirement age is to use the tool on the government website. Bear in mind that the result you get today could change in the future if the government introduces new legislation.
Those born between 6 April 1960 and 5 March 1961 will hit state pension age in a phased manner. The increase will be as below:
| Increase in state pension age from 66 to 67, men and women | |
| Date of birth | When you’ll reach state pension age |
| 6 April 1960 – 5 May 1960 | 66 years and 1 month |
| 6 May 1960 – 5 June 1960 | 66 years and 2 months |
| 6 June 1960 – 5 July 1960 | 66 years and 3 months |
| 6 July 1960 – 5 August 1960 | 66 years and 4 months |
| 6 August 1960 – 5 September 1960 | 66 years and 5 months |
| 6 September 1960 – 5 October 1960 | 66 years and 6 months |
| 6 October 1960 – 5 November 1960 | 66 years and 7 months |
| 6 November 1960 – 5 December 1960 | 66 years and 8 months |
| 6 December 1960 – 5 January 1961 | 66 years and 9 months |
| 6 January 1961 – 5 February 1961 | 66 years and 10 months |
| 6 February 1961 – 5 March 1961 | 66 years and 11 months |
| 6 March 1961 – 5 April 1977 | 67 |
Source: Gov.uk
Under the current law, this is what date some people will reach the state pension age of 68 as part of the phased approach:
| Increase in state pension age from 67 to 68, men and women | |
| Date of birth | When you’ll reach state pension age |
| 6 April 1977 – 5 May 1977 | 6 May 2044 |
| 6 May 1977 – 5 June 1977 | 6 July 2044 |
| 6 June 1977 – 5 July 1977 | 6 September 2044 |
| 6 July 1977 – 5 August 1977 | 6 November 2044 |
| 6 August 1977 – 5 September 1977 | 6 January 2045 |
| 6 September 1977 – 5 October 1977 | 6 March 2045 |
| 6 October 1977 – 5 November 1977 | 6 May 2045 |
| 6 November 1977 – 5 December 1977 | 6 July 2045 |
| 6 December 1977 – 5 January 1978 | 6 September 2045 |
| 6 January 1978 – 5 February 1978 | 6 November 2045 |
| 6 February 1978 – 5 March 1978 | 6 January 2046 |
| 6 March 1978 – 5 April 1978 | 6 March 2046 |
| 6 April 1978 onwards | 68th birthday |
Source: Gov.uk
Miscellaneous
A total of 839,000 Brits contacted the Pension Tracing Service looking to track down lost pension pots in 2025. A Freedom of Information Request to the Department for Work, by pension-finding platform Raindrop, showed this included 770,000 online queries and 66,000 phone calls. Despite those numbers, research from the Pensions Policy Institute estimates £31.1bn is sitting in lost pension pots. Ouch!!
The number of individuals making lump sum withdrawals from their pensions at age 55 in the past year rose to 116,000 from 110,000 the previous year, according to Lubbock Fine Wealth Management. The total value withdrawn by those aged 55, which is the earliest time it is possible, reached a five-year high of £2.3bn, up from £2.1bn the previous year. Lubbock Fine WM said the rise in withdrawals may be due to inheritance tax (IHT) being charged on unspent pensions from April 2027, following changes made in the 2024 Budget. Andrew Tricker, chartered financial planner at the firm, said: “As pensions will be dragged into the IHT net, many are rushing to take money out as soon as they can to help mitigate what they see as excessive tax bills for their dependents. “What is surprising is that this trend has spread to people who have decades left based on average life expectancy.”
UK property prices fell by 0.5% in March as the fallout from the US-Iran conflict hit the housing market. The average house price dropped from £301,151 in February to £299,677 in March, according to the latest data from Halifax. The lender put the slump down to the conflict in the Middle East, which has seen mortgage rates rise on fears inflation could accelerate over the coming months.
And, according to FT Adviser, in another first, advisers’ socks were knocked cleanly off their size nines after self-proclaimed Socialist John McDonnell MP came out swinging on the side of the small IFA, lambasting a regulatory regime that seems to favour large providers and leaves small firms picking up the pieces when things go wrong. McDonnell, who is the chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Investment Fraud and Fairer Financial Services acknowledged they often find themselves tangled up in red tape, despite trying to do the right thing for clients, and end up paying the price for a few bad actors.
On that note, I’m definitely going to go now and put a bet on the Grand National, because surely we in the industry are already winners! Good luck, and I hope to catch up with you next time.