I’m sure you’ll be pleased to hear that this is likely to be a short bulletin this week [Ed – I am!] because, to be frank, not much has happened. I guess after all the build up and the excitement of the budget everyone is concentrating on what the details mean and how the tax wish list might actually be implemented in practice. I’m reminded of a saying that my dad used to use: “after the Lord Mayor’s show…..” There was more to it than that, but I don’t have to labour the point (no political pun intended!)

Markets are fairly flat this week. I was expecting more on the Friday news that Netflix is buying a large chunk of Warner Bros for $72bn. But then again if the markets were watching the FIFA World Cup draw and thought either company were involved with it, I’m not so surprised.     

Santa seems to have ben a bit confused by the late budget this year as he seems reluctant to start his rally. It might therefore be a good time to remind ourselves that the despite everything that has happened this year, major stock markets are up on the year to date. The FTSE100 index up 17%, S&P 500 up 13%, and the Nasdaq up 22%. And diversified portfolios are generally reflecting some of those gains for a lot less volatility (the S&P 500 was 30% lower than it was today back in April! Another reason to hold your nerve!

Also waiting for the big man to stop combing hid beard is Lothar Mentel and the team at Tatton Investment Management as they point out in the latest Tatton Weekly under the following sections:

• Waiting for a Santa Rally – Next week’s near certain US rate cut put stock markets into a better mood, but it seems some private investors are still nursing their crypto binge hangover. 
• November asset returns review – Despite positive news over the month capital markets were volatile and ended pretty much where they started – with the exception of US tech and Asian markets.
• K-shaped economy – Like the post-pandemic world the ‘haves’ have more, and the ‘have nots’ less as economic pressures hit low earners the hardest and create the K-shaped economy – but this time it is the stock market too.

We also have a Strategic Perspective from Paul Danis, strategist at RBC Brewin Dolphin, which I think gives a really interesting insight into the considerations that sit behind portfolio construction.

And in the latest Monthly Digest from Rathbones, they take a look at how stock markets bounced wildly up and down, ending November roughly where they began. The ride for private equity might look smoother, but don’t be fooled by appearances. The road through public stock markets was bumpy and circular again in November, leaving investors pretty much back where they started but with some new bruises. By contrast, PE investors will have experienced a luxury sedan chair ride, despite having largely the same type of underlying economic exposure. In fact, given the propensity of companies to stay private for longer these days before listing on public markets, and because a lot of recent PE investment has been directed at technology, and generative artificial intelligence (genAI) in particular, it’s not unreasonable to believe that their assets should have been even more volatile.   

Rise of the Machines

There are already more than 5 million industrial robots hard at work around the world* according to 7IM.

But different countries are adopting robots at different paces. China, Japan and South Korea account for two thirds of all robots built every year:

Source: AI Index Report (2025)

Why is that? Well, economists will tell you that there’s a huge demographic problem in those countries, which are aging faster than most other nations.

Source: Our World in Data

They aren’t wrong – and as the number of retirees starts to overwhelm the number of people still working, robots are a helpful solution.

But there’s another angle too. Social psychology.

In Europe and the US, we’re just not that comfortablewith robots. In a recent survey** about attitudes to robots, people were asked how happy they’d be with robots being involved in everyday social tasks like cooking, elderly caregiving and medical care.

Just 26% of Americans (and 29% of Brits) said they would be ok with robots doing those tasks, compared to nearly 60% of Chinese respondents. Why might that be?

Now, this is a tough one to prove … But surely the fact that Arnie and the rest of the android assassins didn’t make it to China until the mid-2000’s (along with Blade Runner and a host of other robot bad guys …) has something to do with our negative view of robots!

*https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index Robots do NOT include Siri, smart washing machines, or driverless cars. Technical definition is: “automatically controlled, reprogrammable, and multipurpose machines that can move in three or more directions”

** https://www.mri.co.jp/en/knowledge/article/202502_3.html

Source: The Terminator, 1984

We’ll be back…..probably next week!

Express Yourself

Louise Lewis at FT Adviser prepared a thoughtful piece this week and it’s a great reminder that estate planning in the UK is often viewed only through the formal lens of the will. This legally binding document sets out the distribution of assets, appoints executors, and may establish trusts. As it must comply with the Wills Act 1837 and ultimately becomes a public document, a will must be drafted with precision and restraint. It cannot explain motives, moral guidance or family sensitivities without risking ambiguity or challenge.

Alongside this formal document, however, sits a quieter but increasingly influential companion: the letter of wishes. Although not legally binding, it is treated seriously by trustees because it provides insight that the will cannot accommodate.

It allows a testator to explain decisions, offer guidance on family priorities, and articulate wishes that would be inappropriate or impractical to embed in a legally enforceable instrument.

For many modern families — spanning second marriages, stepchildren, business assets, and differing financial circumstances — the will and letter of wishes have become complementary tools. One provides the legal certainty; the other provides the emotional and practical clarity needed to apply that certainty sensibly.

If you would like to know more, please speak to your usual JB Wealth advisor.

Miscellaneous

Bloomberg reports that retail investors who piled into Michael Saylor’s grand Bitcoin experiment are paying a heavy price. Saylor’s Strategy Inc. was once hailed for wrapping crypto into a public stock. But the two most popular ETFs tracking Strategy’s stock have plunged more than 80% this year. Yet even after recent turmoil in the sector, crypto-linked ETFs as a whole remain one of the fastest-growing segments in US fund industry. Vanguard is bowing to that reality by allowing the products to trade on its platform. Not for the faint hearted, perhaps.

Bitcoin hit a record high earlier this year, climbing above $126,000. Now, after a two-month nosedive triggered in part by billions of dollars in forced liquidations, the digital asset is (comparatively) in the basement. So much, in fact, that those stodgy old equities are leaving it behind.

Transfers have been allowed between stocks and shares ISAs and cash ISAs since 2008. This provided flexibility for people whose strategies and risk appetite may change. But the system will change again once the cash ISA allowance is cut in April 2027. An update from HMRC said transfers from stocks and shares and Innovative Finance ISAs to cash ISAs will no longer be allowed. There will also be tests to determine whether an investment is eligible to be held in a stocks and shares ISA or is ‘cash like.’ Currently, cash holdings held in a stocks and shares ISA, often from investment returns or uninvested money, may earn an interest rate while an investor decides how to use the money. HMRC said it will introduce a charge on any interest paid on cash held in a stocks and shares or Innovative Finance ISA, creating a disincentive to keep hold of cash in the tax wrapper for too long. These rules, subject to consultation and new legislation, will apply to investors under the age of 65.

I’m off now to create the JB Peace Prize Awards so that I present the inaugural one to a deserving individual! [Ed – should I start writing my acceptance speech?] I hope to catch up with you next time.